Being short QQQQ is causing me to sweat! The Fed just bailed out the longs and socked it to the shorts by lowering interest rates a half a point in an effort to bail out the subprime mortgage problem. The dollar got cheaper relative to other currencies and so products look cheaper in, say, Canada and Europe. The Canadians buy more stuff, earnings in the cheaper dollars go up (real earnings may actually be going down), and then investors buy more stock in anticipation of the higher earnings.
So, QQQQ looks like a long play. Many of the companies of the QQQQ have the international exposure where they benefit from cheaper dollar. However, I suspect this is temporary. I'm short because it's gone up so high for so long that I expect it to regress to the mean at some point. Of course, I'd sure wish it would hurry up.
Friday, October 5, 2007
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